April 7, 2021 By Katie Roundtree

In February, it was announced that a committee within NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) is determining whether hurricane season should begin on May 15th rather than June 1st, as is the current internationally recognized start date.  This is in response to weather patterns over the past decade and tropical activity starting earlier than June 1stover the past six consecutive years. Since 2000, eleven storms have been named prior to the official start of the season. It is a trend that they believe will continue into the future.

In response, NOAA may begin issuing daily tropical weather forecasts as early as May 15th.  As to moving the start date of the official hurricane season to May 15th, in their annual hurricane plan, the World Meteorological Organization announced the National Hurricane Center “will determine a quantitative threshold for adding or removing dates from the official Atlantic Hurricane Season,” and “will then examine the need for … potentially moving the beginning of hurricane season to May 15.”

Warmer waters, potentially from climate change, have caused tropical storms to develop earlier than June 1st on a more consistent basis.  Better modeling technology and satellites have led to the ability to track and name storms more effectively than in the past. Storms that may have been missed before can now be monitored and forecasted more accurately.  There have been calls for years to revise the official start date of the Atlantic hurricane season to May 15, matching the first day of hurricane season in the eastern Pacific. June 1 is an arbitrarily chosen date; some think it’s time to change the definition to reflect reality.

Even though there is discussion about moving the hurricane season start date to May 15th, the ending date of November 30th has not changed. The height of hurricane season is August through Mid-October, later in the season.  Typically, August has more than three times more storms than July, or double the amount of June and July combined.  As the oceans heat up, activity increases. Storms form more frequently and are much more intense than storms earlier in the season.

So, what does this mean to those of us in South Florida? Not much.  Hurricanes will not suddenly decide to form earlier because of a shift in dates.  This doesn’t give a green light to the atmosphere to stir up storms prior to June 1st.  It simply means that we need to be more vigilant, prepare early and pay attention to weather trends and forecasts a bit sooner in the year than in the past.  Hurricane season is a long stretch, but it’s the price we pay to live in paradise.